When the Electoral Act 2026 was passed into law in February 2026, the expectation was that it would be the deus ex machina (the fool-proof, mechanical, solution as in complex Greek tragedies of old) to Nigeria’s electoral problems since the return to civilian rule in 1999, but the newest law merely followed the old pattern, incomplete and inadequate in its provisions, suspicious in terms of its intentions, creating fresh problems of its own, and proving that there is apparently no definite solution to Nigeria’s electoral problems. By this time next year, there can be no doubt that we would be talking about another round of electoral reform, and that still won’t solve our problems with elections because it is now clear that it is not laws that create credible and transparent elections, or democracy. The problem is with the people, the institutions, the processes and the politicians themselves. There is no law, no matter how well framed that Nigerians cannot sabotage, compromise, violate. And we need not seek further afield for proof than the recent, and on-going party primaries in the political parties participating in the 2027 electoral process. What we see is that our politicians have not learnt any lessons. They are not ready to change.
Nigeria is a victim of personal ambitions and the greed for power. Nigeria is one country that is resistant to reform even when the incumbent administration mouths reform as a slogan and definitive banner. We must be worried that Nigeria’s 2027 process may end up as a big gamble, where it is the smartest, the most privileged, the most devious that will run away with a special form of calculated elite enrichment, and privilege, while we the people, would have absolutely no input. The game is on, and I have argued elsewhere that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is emerging as the owner of the game, not because his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is the very best, or the ruling party, but because he has used the power of incumbency to create the impression of a swirling momentum that wrongfoots every other political party – 20 additional ones. I have also argued that a Bola Ahmed Tinubu School of Politics and Strategy is in the making before our very eyes. You will have to ask me about the values, the motivations and the curriculum of that school, but that is not the primary purpose of this commentary and you might as well provide your own answers.
In the past few days, we have been having party primaries ahead of the January 2027 elections – the PDP, the APC, and the ADC, other parties are bound to follow. Despite a recent court judgement from the Federal High Court of Justice Mohammad G. Umar, sitting in Abuja, which nullified INEC’s membership deadline, parties are expected to conclude their nomination processes by May 30, and for now the parties are complying with the status quo ante bellum (nobody knows exactly what storm will come after), but for now, the APC has concluded its primaries by May 23, the Peoples Democratic party will follow by May 26, the Labour party on May 29, the NNPP by May 26, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) by May 28. But what have we seen so far? Protests. Confusion. Violence. Intra-party crises. Fears and anxieties about the 2027 process and a reaffirmation of the opening suggestion that Nigeria is a country in search of citizens and patriots. With elite competition reduced to selfish interests, this is a country that is groaning in pain. The people do not matter and the people are their own problems too. How did we end up with this lot who would willingly and gladly trade off their own happiness, so cynically, so carelessly? Hunger? Apathy? Cynicism? Resignation? Acquiescence?
On Saturday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his ever-supportive wife, Senator Remi Tinubu took part in the APC Presidential Primary at Ward E in Ikoyi, Lagos State. He was in town throughout the APC primaries in Lagos, by the way, and has done his best so far not to disrupt traffic, except for some indigent APC supporters who have taken over the frontage of his Bourdillon Street house, and there are so many of them, arriving in buses and with walking sticks, in anticipation of Sallah gifts. The poor are perpetually begging for food to eat – a sign of the times. They should be attended to promptly and sent off. The President on voting day was said to have described the APC primaries as “peaceful and well-organized,” good evidence of “internal democracy” within the APC, and that he is “very satisfied” with the performance of the state governors from congresses to local government accreditation, membership registration, and delegates accreditation. He scored democracy at a high level and said: “I’m just excited. They challenge me more”. Those reportedly challenging him are his supporters within the APC. With about 31 Governors and the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, a political amphibian called Nyesom Wike (part PDP, part APC) supporting him, President Bola Tinubu recorded a landslide victory in his party’s presidential primaries. This was expected. It is now certain that President Tinubu will run for a second term and that he is the choice of his party in a landslide victory. The plan by opposition parties to come together and field a single candidate collapsed long ago – another master stroke by President Tinubu.
The APC Presidential primaries took place in 8, 809 wards across 36 states and the FCT. Tinubu won with 10, 999, 967 votes as announced by Senator Pius Anyim Anyim at the Tinubu International Conference Centre in Abuja on Sunday, May 23. They didn’t choose the Eagle Square. The announcement had to be in a building named after Tinubu himself!. To lend the entire process a veneer of legitimacy, competition and credibility, Tinubu was challenged by a relatively unknown Stanley Osifo from Edo State, described in one report as an “obscure businessman”. President Tinubu scored about 11 million votes, Osifo got a meagre 16, 504 votes, and in actual fact, he had zero votes in quite a number of states – Kwara, Ebonyi, Gombe, Sokoto, Rivers, Edo, Delta and Kogi. I consider him a man of courage. He is very bold indeed. He, Stanley Osifo, actually believed that he could challenge President Tinubu. He should be rewarded for his unique sense of humour and self-deprecation. He paid N100 million into APC coffers for the Presidential contest. I think, I am serious, I am actually not joking, he should be given a refund, and if the party is not willing, President Tinubu should appreciate him. It takes some courage for a man in whom blood flows to embrace an exercise in such futility, if not open stupidity, with such brazenness.
But this is not just about Osifo. There were other APC members who left their former parties and joined the APC, in the expectation that they would get due rewards. Many of them were disappointed. They lost out. Before the primaries, the APC had 242 members in the House of Representatives, and 88 Senators. Over 70 of these persons are not going to be part of the 2027 process. 14 key APC Senators failed to secure return tickets. They were either screened out, outsmarted or defeated. Dr. Ajibola Bashiru, Secretary General of the APC had said all results would be declared centrally from the party secretariat. Nobody listened to him. The results were collated and announced on site. Many of the losers have appealed the outcome, to the party’s administrative system for that purpose, but even when a recent ruling says they can move to other parties till September 2026 because INEC acted ultra vires with regard to Section 29(1) of the Electoral Act, they should not get over-excited. INEC is determined to challenge Justice Umar’s judgment. President Tinubu said the primaries were “peaceful and well organized.” That is not true. The APC primaries were marked by protests, cash inducement and violence. In Ondo Central, for example, Senator Adeniyi Adegbonmire almost lost life at Okilisa Ward 5 in Akure when gunmen hijacked the process. Many party members are also aggrieved. In Rivers State, Gov. Simi Fubara was screened out because he fell out of favour with a Godfather who is not even a member of the APC, but a friend of the APC President. In Surulere Constituency 1 in Lagos, Desmond Elliot has been weeping inconsolably because his local Godfather said he had to be replaced, and so it has been decided. On another note, seven serving Governors and 12 former Governors are planning to go to the Senate on the platform of the APC, a reminder once again that the Senate has become a retirement home for tired Governors who have nothing else to do with their lives. The process is available for the aggrieved to file petitions and many have done so, five so far from Delta state, but the truth is that many APC members have lost faith in the party’s system. In the course of the APC primaries, the officiating teams could not even count properly. There were no registers, no proper checks, party members just showed up and the officiating personnel just jumped from No 1, 11, 20, to 1, 000, 5, 000 in defiance of all known rules of elementary arithmetic. The Electoral Act 2026, at Section 84(2) prescribes consensus and direct primaries to avoid the menace of selected party delegates, and open up the process, but even this new formula is openly fraudulent.
But it is not just the APC that is guilty as charged, and which by its conduct has shown what Nigerians are likely to face in the 2027 elections. In the African Democratic Congress (ADC) there have been two congresses. Dumebi Kachikwu has been declared the Presidential candidate of one faction, even while the David Mark-faction was choosing its own candidate from a list of three: Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi and Mohammed Hayatudeen. In the ADC primaries, there were battles and disagreements in Kano, Benue, and Plateau states. In Adamawa in particular, the withdrawal of former Governor, Muhammadu Jibrilla Bindow from the governorship process caused an upset. As at the time of this writing, Atiku Abubakar of the ADC appears to be coasting home to victory in the ADC Presidential Primary in Bauchi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger, Kebbi, Abia, Gombe, Sokoto, Enugu states and elsewhere. What next then, for example, for former Governor/Minister Rotimi Amaechi who says he is in the race because he wants to be President? But even the ADC failed the test of simple arithmetic, thus not having the moral right to condemn the rival APC party. It would be interesting to see what happens subsequently in all the other political parties too but one thing is clear: Nigeria’s professional political class is yet to learn any lessons and may never do so. The people are compromised and would rather do the bidding of the highest bidder during political seasons, not minding whatever suffering awaits them in a show of accustomed cynicism which is the worst thing that can happen to a democratic process. The pundits had predicted voter apathy, but that has not been seen during the primaries across Nigeria. This however does not guarantee that there will be no apathy during the general elections in 2027. The factions in the ADC and the PDP would soon begin a fresh round of battles, court drama, and defections.
Altogether, the political party primaries on the basis of what has been seen so far is enough reason for concern and anxiety about much of what is to come. The political parties failed their own members. The people failed themselves. A heavy atmosphere of mistrust and anger has been created. They all failed the accountability and integrity test. With President Tinubu’s 11 million votes in the APC, far more than his total votes in the 2023 Presidential election of 8, 805, 475, the suggestion is that he would get more votes in the general election in 2027 out of INEC’s original number of about 94 million voters. Tinubu gained more votes in Imo, Adamawa and Gombe, and scored less in the South West with the exception of Lagos. Look closely, there is already a demonstration effect and an auto suggestion in the strategy. This is without prejudice to the fact that a party primary may not necessarily reflect what happens in a main election which would be guided by competition and other rules of the game: both local and external: in this instance, ethnicity, religion, money, geopolitical external interventions, turn out, institutions and especially, the electoral umpire. The only thing Nigeria has going for it, is its resilience and the people’s endless optimism. Nigeria has a way of drawing close to the precipice and pulling back from the brink at the people’s expense. This pattern may be no different in 2027, when it would be clear that the biggest area in need of reform has been left behind.
Credit: Reuben Abati