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You should have seen my face when news broke last Sunday that some soldiers had announced the overthrow of President Patrice Talon of the Republic of Benin. Apart from the fact that as a Nigerian, I still have some PTSD from the military era, Benin has been one of the more stable democracies in West Africa — howsoever defined — and I could not understand why the military would terminate 34 years of civil rule just like that. Moreover, I have been reading some encouraging reports about the progress being made by Talon, who has managed to focus on developing a world-standard public service and building quality infrastructure in the francophone country of 13.7 million people.

As Winston Churchill, the former UK prime minister, once said, “Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” I would adapt those words thus: for all its glaring shortcomings, the worst form of democracy is better than the best form of military rule. I recall an argument I had with a major general a few years ago. He was complaining about a news story in our newspaper and I exchanged hot words with him. After the whole drama, I shook my head and said to myself: “Lucky you — if this were to be under military rule, you would not sleep at home tonight and your whereabouts may never be known again.”

There seems to be a coup contagion in West Africa. Mali, after some promising years of practising democracy along with its failings, got entangled with military dictatorship in 2021. Burkina Faso fell to Captain Ibrahim Traore in 2022. The Republic of Niger was captured by Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani in 2023. These three countries exited the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), announcing that they were discarding the “colonial” influence of France. Russia is their new colonial master. Good luck to them. In other news, Guinea-Bissau dramatically went back to military rule after its November 2025 presential election.

As it turned out, the coup in Benin failed, with the Nigerian military playing an important role in dislodging the plotters. In 1997, the Nigerian military also intervened to help restore democracy in Sierra Leone. Major Johnny Paul Koroma had overthrown President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah but ECOWAS swiftly condemned the coup and directed the Nigerian-led ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) to restore order, which it did in February/March 1998, reinstating Kabbah to office. The Economist of London wrote a sarcastic leader, saying Nigeria was exporting what it did not have. The dramatic irony was that Nigeria itself was under military rule, led by the inimitable Gen Sani Abacha.

I was so relieved when the Benin coup was foiled. Having another suspected Russia-backed military government next door to us presented a nightmare scenario. The coup leaders pointed to the jihadists’ attacks in the northern part of Benin as one of the reasons for the coup (in April 2025, al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorists killed 54 Beninese soldiers on the border with Burkina Faso). They accused Talon of doing nothing to end the insurgency, but those who are familiar with military antics know that coup plotters often ride on public sentiments when they want to seize power by saying what the people want to hear. What happens next is none of their business and you cannot question them.

For those who may not know, before the US helped to oust Colonel Muammar Gaddaffi as the Libyan leader in 2011, he was building a massive army made up of young Africans. After his fall, Libya descended into a civil war and anarchy took full control, with no functioning government in place. One major result was the transformation of Libya into a human trafficking hub, but the little-talked-about consequence was the looting of Libyan armoury by the newly trained fighters, who became ready tools for al-Qaeda and Islamic State. One outcome was the strengthening of Boko Haram in Nigeria, who became better armed and launched a reinvigorated war against the Nigerian state.

Post-Gaddaffi, Boko Haram was no longer a ragtag army of suicide bombers and hit-and-run jihadists. They became reinforced, got better equipped and had better-trained militants, who moved the terrorist war from hit-and-run to full insurgency, presenting a new set of problems to the Nigerian military. But Nigeria was not the only battleground. In 2012, Tuareg rebels, who had been reinforced by an influx of battle-hardened and well-armed militants from the Libyan war, began to destabilise Mali, leading to a series of coups and counter-coups. Today, and under military dictatorship, most of Mali has been captured by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda franchise.

As I write this, Bamako, the Malian capital, has been under siege by JNIM for weeks and experts project that it is a matter of time before it falls. That would make Mali the first African country to come under the control of either al-Qaeda or Islamic State. Mali, by the way, is a Muslim-majority country. Burkina Faso, also under military rule, has been the centre of the most vicious terrorist attacks in the world. It currently occupies the first position in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), making it the most terrorised country in the world. Niger is also under strain and is ranked No 5, one step above Nigeria. May I remind us that Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are all under military rule.

Mali, ironically, was making significant progress against JNIM with the help of France. After France exited and Russia stepped in, the situation has been deteriorating. It should not be a surprise: different militaries have different strengths and experiences. Russia is a newcomer to Africa, although it is expanding its influence with the allegiance of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. If Benin had joined the ranks, it would have been significant. That is a further step to encircling Nigeria. During the hunger protests of 2024, Russian flags were flown freely in parts of northern Nigeria, leading to speculation that there might be a Russian agenda playing out in Africa’s most populous country.

Those who understand the dynamics of regional politics would not be surprised that Nigeria quickly acted in self-interest by helping to quash the Benin coup. But those who are eternally cynical about Nigeria — mostly because of politics — will predictably question the country’s action. Some said it was an “invasion”, a clear misunderstanding of the concept. Invasion is not when a democratically elected government voluntarily asks for external help to restore constitutional order. I was pretty amused that those who celebrated the threat by US President Donald Trump to invade Nigeria and “liberate” Christians from “genocide” are against Nigeria’s “invasion” of Benin to liberate democracy.

I hear people ask: so, Nigeria can deploy aerial power to dislodge coup plotters in Benin when it has refused to deploy the same might to fight bandits and insurgents on its own territory? This is classic selective perception. A simple Google search will reveal that we have consistently been conducting aerial missions against bandits and insurgents. It is absolutely false to say we have not been bombing them. Conducting a one-day operation against coup plotters in a military barracks in Cotonou, the capital city of Benin, is not of the same scale as bombing bandits and insurgents in locations spread across northern Nigeria which are probably five times the size of the entire Republic of Benin.

What then is the outcome of all our military efforts against bandits and insurgents? I am as frustrated as most Nigerians are, especially as our leaders are not giving priority to where it should be, more so as we hear of the corruption that is making things all the more difficult and seemingly intractable. But I am not as sceptical as to say we are not making any progress. Boko Haram insurgency has been largely contained to parts of Borno state. They have never been able to take over Maiduguri despite all their efforts. When we think that Bamako, the capital of Mali, is on the verge of falling to JNIM, then maybe we should stop downplaying the gallantry of our soldiers and quit demoralising them.

War against insurgency is not the easiest thing in the world, as some people try to make it look. The US is reputed to be the global military leader but after spending 20 years in Afghanistan, it ran away and practically handed the country back to the Taliban forces it had been fighting. For the record, the US spent over $2.3 trillion and lost 2,400 soldiers fighting insurgency in Afghanistan, yet it did not win. This is for those who think fighting insurgents is the same thing as quelling a riot or killing armed robbers. Some commentators make it look like the bandits and insurgents are gathered inside one building and all we need to do is drop a bomb and they will all be dead. This is not Netflix, I’m afraid.

We must take a deep breath and apply reason once in a while. I do not subscribe to the notion that everything done by the government is wrong. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. Being on top of developments in our neighbourhood is in our strategic interest. Some big countries even install neighbouring governments so that they can sleep in peace. The Sahel is being devastated mostly because of what happened in neighbouring Libya in 2011. Some aspects of the banditry plaguing northern Nigeria stemmed from developments in our neighbouring countries. We can bomb coup plotters in Cotonou as well as bandits in Kebbi. Yes, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

BUMPY BUDGETING

Does President Bola Tinubu have a nonchalant attitude (I initially wanted to say “disdain”) for budgeting? Years after we managed to normalise the January-December cycle under President Buhari, Tinubu has not behaved in a way to suggest he cares about this very important aspect of governance. Under him, there was a time when we were running up to four budgets simultaneously. I don’t even know how many we currently run. Budget performance reports are so rare. By now, federal lawmakers should be processing the 2026 budget, but the prerequisite medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) just found its way to their chambers on Thursday. Befuddling.

RIP PDP?

I pride myself on not having sympathy for any political party, but the decimation of the PDP is really sad, the truth be told. As of May 29, 2003, the party controlled 16 of the 17 southern states. Today, it controls only one. How are the mighty fallen! PDP’s exit from power in 2015 created a leadership vacuum in its ranks and accelerated its decline as members started jumping ship, but it was not as bad as it is today. I believe the exodus stems from governors and lawmakers being afraid their faction may be rejected by the courts and their re-election bids truncated. The APC is believed to be stoking the fire just to weaken opposition, but something tells me the story has not ended yet. Watching.

IJ AT 60

Ms Ijeoma Nwogwugwu, former editor of THISDAY, is 60 today. What a year 1965 turned out to be for Nigerian journalism. The roll call includes Mr Olusegun Adeniyi, Dr Reuben Abati, Mr Seye Kehinde, publisher of City People, and Mr Dipo Kehinde, publisher of Newsmakers. Senior citizens all! Nwogwugwu is someone I always use to inspire young female journalists. “What beat would you like to cover?” I would ask them during recruitment. The answer was almost always “entertainment” — as if women had been barred from the other specialities. I would say: “Do you know Ijeoma? She is one of the finest in financial journalism. Don’t limit yourself.” This has unlocked many talents. Model.

NO COMMENT

I get called all sorts for my views. Some call me “ronu” because I did not join their IReV movement. Some call me “Afonja” because I did not say President Buhari was “Jibril Al Sudani”. Some even say I am a “Fulani slave” because of my takes on “true” federalism. Ladies and gentlemen, here is the latest one: Mallam Nasir el-Rufai has posted an article on his X handle labelling TheCable as a “Yoruba paper” being used by the “Yoruba EFCC” to hound Mr Abubakar Malami over the Abacha Loot. In fact, we broke the story in 2017 when Buhari was in power. Now that I am fully celebrating the foiling of the Benin coup, what is the next blackmail? That I am French toast? Hahahaha.

Credit: Simon Kolawole