There are no visible electoral reforms. 2027 will be worse than 2023 on every negative scale. Because the ills of 2023 went unpunished, they have been reinforced. The perpetrators will double their efforts. 2023 and its aftermath have bestowed brazen impunity on the immediate political future. The opposition is endangered. The trajectory is predictable.
Consequently, Tinubu has poached and plundered the opposition. His motto declares that power is not served but snatched, captured, and seized. The current electoral umpire, INEC, lacks the courage and conviction for genuine reforms. It’s perhaps satisfied that the gaping lapses hand all the aces to its current piper and master. That institution cannot declare Tinubu the loser in the next election. The opposition knows no court in this land can dare the president. The judiciary has become too subservient to the executive, too contemptuous of its own independence to upturn Tinubu’s re-election—no matter how perfidious the process.
In that sense, 2027 is already almost a formality. Astute politicians, chronic opportunists, businessmen, and budding hooligans are all hedging their bets with the president. Against a capricious and resolute power of incumbency, economic hardship and widespread insecurity are not decisive factors. The perilous state of the country and the bruised feelings of a hungry electorate might not even withstand vote-buying, let alone massive result substitution. Tinubu is not Jonathan. He will not surrender power. He is surrounded by wide-eyed men who cannot afford to be displaced now.
So the opposition’s job is cut out. The country teeters on the verge of a one-party state. Politicians are fleeing to the ruling party to evade accountability on all fronts: first, at the polls; second, before anti-corruption agencies; third, in the courts where pre-election and election matters will be tested. What should be a refuge for genuine aspirants has become a risky option—deserted by the faint-hearted, the gamblers, and many rent-seekers.
With the odds stacked against it, the opposition must now court the masses vigorously to break down walls of apathy. It must fashion a compelling vision and inspire the disillusioned youth. Relying solely on the frustrations of the masses will be fruitless. They must drag the people out of hopelessness. Yet the opposition remains riven by internal squabbles, shortsightedness, and cannibalistic rivalry. Yet the opposition is filled with jaundiced politicians struggling for private benefits. Yet many of these opposition leaders are still sleepwalking.
Even if the opposition gathers its spirit, unites, and excites the imagination of the people sufficiently before the polls, it will most probably not smell victory. Because its competition is not ‘flesh and blood’ alone. It is Tinubu, Hope Uzodimma, Akpabio, Ganduje, Wike, MC Oluomo, Egbetokun, and others. It is the law enforcement, military, judiciary, stand any chance of winning, the opposition must not only have the people on its side—it must have the capacity to create a stalemate in the polity.
The political class has betrayed the country. The opposition wants power without sacrifice. It claims it would be different, yet the country still needs the opposition—however flawed—to put up a strong showing in 2027. Nothing here suggests the election should be do-or-die, nor that the opposition should abandon sportsmanship. But so much has already happened to damage the credibility of the upcoming polls.
To stage any meaningful showing, the opposition must become a literal menace—capable of making the ruling party rethink massive rigging.
Unfortunately, the opposition does not yet grasp the enormity of the task. It seems to be priming the people for a spontaneous uprising when rigging occurs. It appears to rely on the international community. That is lazy. For clarity: the United States and the EU cannot be relied upon to compel credible elections. After flawed polls, they cannot be counted on to abort a conspiratorial judicial process. The opposition should not bank on guilt-tripping the masses. The masses will not rise up without sufficient reasons. It is the duty of the opposition to force the issue.
If the leaders of the opposition fear intimidation, business and political strangulation, arrests, and trials, then they should not bother contesting against Tinubu. They should choose the second option. The Igbo say the man who fights and runs away lives to fight another day. But contesting in 2027—fully aware of the rigged outcome at the polls and in the courts—and accepting it quietly is not self-preservation. That will mark the end of the opposition. The people are tired of docility. If the opposition lacks the courage to take the bull by the horns, it must declare the process irredeemably flawed and spare the country a useless ritual.
The opposition has only a few months to take a clear position. If INEC and the judiciary have been appropriated by the ruling party—if INEC will never return Tinubu as loser regardless of the actual outcome, and if no court will upturn results announced for him no matter how flawed—then the opposition must decide. If it has the capacity to contain this asymmetric challenge, resist massive rigging, and deter the courts from subverting justice, then it should put the people on notice and prepare accordingly. But if it is too lame , too fearful, then it must spare the people the trouble and cost of a presidential election. It must boycott and deny the exercise some legitimacy.
The opposition must understand this reality. With the defection of most opposition governors, Tinubu already has a ready-made explanation for his victory at the polls. Those defections have made the justification easy for INEC and the courts. The opposition must develop the red eye to match the madness, inspire the people out of apathy, or withdraw and stain the unstoppable but corrupt victory—thereby forcing international scrutiny.
In conclusion, the 2023 election’s flaws—rigging allegations, judicial deference, and institutional capture—remain unaddressed, creating fertile ground for repetition or escalation. In addition, Tinubu has created an air of inevitability around his re election by the literal hijack and destabilization of opposition parties. The opposition must develop the fierceness and structure to rattle him and counter rigging and judicial corruption. The masses need to see this to come out of hopelessness and apathy, to stamp authority on the polls. Otherwise , the opposition must boycott the presidential election to force a stalemate and international scrutiny.
Credit: Ugoji Egbujo